Participants of the conference on “Philosophy and Theory of AI” [Response rates: 43 out of 88]Participants of the conferences AGI 12 and AGI Impacts 2012Response rates: 72 out of 111]Members of the Greek Association for Artificial IntelligenceResponse rates: 26 out of 250The 100 ‘Top authors in artificial intelligence’ by ‘citation’ in ‘all years’ according to Microsoft Academic SearchResponse rates: 29 out of 100Total:310 out of 549 on 2012/2013

This AI Prediction was made by Participants of the conference on “Philosophy and Theory of AI” [Response rates: 43 out of 88]Participants of the conferences AGI 12 and AGI Impacts 2012Response rates: 72 out of 111]Members of the Greek Association for Artificial IntelligenceResponse rates: 26 out of 250The 100 ‘Top authors in artificial intelligence’ by ‘citation’ in ‘all years’ according to Microsoft Academic SearchResponse rates: 29 out of 100Total:310 out of 549 in 2012/2013.

Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

2. For the purposes of this question, assume that human scientific activity continues without major negative disruption. By what year would you see a (10%/50%/90%) probability for such HLMI to exist”[PT-AIMedian:10% — 202350% — 204890% — 2080AGIMedian:10% — 202250% — 204090% — 2065EETNMedian:10% — 202050% — 205090% — 2093TOP100Median:10% — 202450% — 205090% — 2070ALLMedian:10% — 202250% — 204090% — 2075Clicks of the ‘never’ box. These answers did notenter in to the averages aboveNever10% — 2; 1.2% — 7; 4.1% — 28; 16.5%”

Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Participants of the conference on “Philosophy and Theory of AI” [Response rates: 43 out of 88]Participants of the conferences AGI 12 and AGI Impacts 2012Response rates: 72 out of 111]Members of the Greek Association for Artificial IntelligenceResponse rates: 26 out of 250The 100 ‘Top authors in artificial intelligence’ by ‘citation’ in ‘all years’ according to Microsoft Academic SearchResponse rates: 29 out of 100Total:310 out of 549:

3. Assume for the purpose of this question that such HLMI will at some point exist. How likely do you then think it is that within (2 years / 30 years) thereafter there will be machine intelligence that greatly surpasses the performance of every human in most professions?[2 years:PT-AI — 10%AGI — 15TN — 5%TOP100 — 5 years:PT-AI — 60%AGI — 90TN — 55%TOP100 — 50%]

Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

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The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

4. Assume for the purpose of this question that such HLMI will at some point exist. How positive or negative would be overall impact on humanity, in the long run? Please indicate a probability for each option.[PT-AIExtremely good — 17%On balance good — 24%More or less neutral — 23%On balance bad — 17%Extremely bad (existential catastrophe) — 18%AGIExtremely good — 28%On balance good — 25%More or less neutral — 12%On balance bad — 12%Extremely bad (existential catastrophe) — 24TNExtremely good — 31%On balance good — 30%More or less neutral — 20%On balance bad — 13%Extremely bad (existential catastrophe) — 6%TOP100Extremely good — 20%On balance good — 40%More or less neutral — 19%On balance bad — 13%Extremely bad (existential catastrophe) — 8%]

Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

The text presents the results of a survey on the potential impact of highly advanced artificial intelligence (HLMI) on humanity. The survey asked respondents to rate the overall impact of HLMI on humanity as extremely good, on balance good, more or less neutral, on balance bad, or extremely bad (existential catastrophe). The results show that respondents were most likely to rate the impact of HLMI as on balance good, with AGI being the most positively rated and TOP100 being the least positively rated.