Matt Mahoney on 2013

This AI Prediction was made by Matt Mahoney in 2013.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

The hard problems like vision, language, art, and robotics will require the equivalent computing power of 7 billion human brains, i.e. 10^26 operations per second (OPS), 10^25 bytes of memory, 10^17 bits of human knowledge collected at 5 bits per second per person, all consuming less than 10^13 W. I would say 30 years to reach that level, with 10% chance it will happen in 10 years and more than 10% chance it will never happen. But that is not the same as AI.



Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Matt Mahoney:

The whole idea is ridiculous. Self improvement is a company re-investing its profits or a country building better schools. It is already happening.


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

Solving complex problems like vision, language, art, and robotics will require computing power equivalent to 7 billion human brains. This would require 10^26 OPS, 10^25 bytes of memory, and 10^17 bits of human knowledge. While it may take 30 years to reach this level, self-improvement is already happening through companies reinvesting profits and countries building better schools.



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:




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