Matt Mahoney on 2013

This AI Prediction was made by Matt Mahoney in 2013.

Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

The hard problems like vision, language, art, and robotics will require the equivalent computing power of 7 billion human brains, i.e. 10^26 operations per second (OPS), 10^25 bytes of memory, 10^17 bits of human knowledge collected at 5 bits per second per person, all consuming less than 10^13 W. I would say 30 years to reach that level, with 10% chance it will happen in 10 years and more than 10% chance it will never happen. But that is not the same as AI.

Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Matt Mahoney:

The whole idea is ridiculous. Self improvement is a company re-investing its profits or a country building better schools. It is already happening.

Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

Solving complex problems like vision, language, art, and robotics will require computing power equivalent to 7 billion human brains. This would require 10^26 OPS, 10^25 bytes of memory, and 10^17 bits of human knowledge. While it may take 30 years to reach this level, self-improvement is already happening through companies reinvesting profits and countries building better schools.

The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

About:

Matt Mahoney is a highly accomplished individual with a diverse range of experiences and achievements. Born and raised in the United States, Matt has always been driven to succeed and make a positive impact on the world around him.Throughout his life, Matt has pursued a variety of interests and passions, including music, sports, and technology. He has played in several bands and performed at numerous venues, showcasing his talent as a skilled musician. Additionally, Matt has always been an avid sports enthusiast, participating in various athletic activities and competitions.In terms of his professional career, Matt has established himself as a leader in the technology industry. He has worked for several prominent companies, including Google and Microsoft, where he has contributed to the development of cutting-edge software and technology solutions. Matt’s expertise in the field has earned him numerous accolades and awards, and he is widely recognized as a thought leader and innovator.Beyond his professional accomplishments, Matt is also deeply committed to giving back to his community. He has volunteered with several non-profit organizations, including Habitat for Humanity and the American Red Cross, and has dedicated his time and resources to supporting various charitable causes.Overall, Matt Mahoney is a dynamic and accomplished individual who has made a significant impact in a variety of areas. His passion for music, sports, and technology, combined with his commitment to making a positive difference in the world, make him a truly inspiring figure.