This AI Prediction was made by William Hertling in 2014.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
In sum, Ramez brings up great points, and he may very well be correct: the singularity might be a hundred years off instead of twenty or thirty.
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from William Hertling:
I don’t see a hard takeoff. In addition to the reasons Ramez stated, I also believe it takes so long to test and qualify candidates for improvement that successive iteration will be slow.
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
The singularity may be a hundred years away instead of twenty or thirty, according to Ramez. The author does not believe in a hard takeoff and thinks that the slow process of testing and qualifying candidates for improvement will result in slow successive iteration.
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
On the other hand, if we can agree that the singularity is a possibility, even just a modest possibility, then we may spur more discussion and investment into the safety and ethics of AGI.
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
Acknowledging the possibility of singularity can lead to more discussions and investments in the safety and ethics of AGI. Even a small possibility of singularity can have a significant impact on the development of AGI. Therefore, it is important to consider the potential risks and benefits of AGI.
William Hertling is an accomplished author and entrepreneur, known for his expertise in the fields of technology and science fiction. Born and raised in Portland, Oregon, Hertling developed a passion for writing at a young age, which he pursued throughout his academic and professional career.After earning a degree in computer science from the University of Oregon, Hertling worked in the technology industry for over two decades, gaining valuable experience in software development, project management, and business strategy. During this time, he also continued to hone his writing skills, publishing several short stories and essays in various literary journals.In 2011, Hertling released his debut novel, “Avogadro Corp,” which quickly gained critical acclaim and established him as a rising star in the science fiction genre. Since then, he has published several more novels, including “A.I. Apocalypse,” “The Last Firewall,” and “Kill Process,” all of which have been well-received by readers and critics alike.In addition to his writing career, Hertling is also a successful entrepreneur, having founded and sold several technology startups over the years. He is a sought-after speaker and consultant, and has been featured in numerous publications and media outlets for his insights on technology, entrepreneurship, and the future of innovation.Despite his many accomplishments, Hertling remains humble and dedicated to his craft, constantly striving to improve his writing and stay at the forefront of the ever-evolving technology landscape. He currently resides in Portland with his wife and two children, where he continues to write and inspire others with his unique blend of creativity and technical expertise.
Keywords: singularity, iteration, AGI