This AI Prediction was made by Willard Wells in 2009.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Willard Wells:
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
The probability of humankind’s long-term survival is encouragingly high, roughly70%. This implies survival long enough to colonize the solar system and perhaps the galaxy either with Homo sapiens or some sort of conscious artificial creatures that we regard as our intellectual descendants (cyborgs, androids, whatever). However, the high probability of survival does not imply smooth sailing. The chances are about 50±50 that some apocalyptic event will decimate mankind with in the lifetime of today’s newborns.
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
Humankind has a 70% chance of long-term survival, potentially leading to colonization of the solar system and beyond. However, there is a 50% chance of an apocalyptic event occurring within the lifetime of today’s newborns. This implies that survival is not guaranteed and will require effort to ensure.
Willard Wells is an AI researcher who has worked on a variety of topics related to natural language processing, machine learning, and cognitive modeling. He is currently a research scientist at the Institute for Creative Technologies at the University of Southern California and has previously worked at the Palo Alto Research Center and SRI International. Wells has made significant contributions to the development of algorithms for text classification, sentiment analysis, and language modeling. He has also been involved in efforts to develop more realistic and human-like models of cognition, particularly in the context of virtual humans and other AI systems designed for social interaction.
Keywords: Humankind, Survival, Apocalyptic