Vernor Vinge on 2002

This AI Prediction was made by Vernor Vinge in 2002.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:




Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Vernor Vinge:



Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:




The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

I’m inclined toward the optimistic, but very pessimistic things are possible. I don’t see any logical inescapable conclusion.


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

I have an optimistic outlook, but I recognize that bad outcomes are possible. I cannot come to a definite conclusion. There is no logical certainty.




Vernor Vinge was an American science fiction author, computer scientist, and mathematician. He is best known for his Hugo Award-winning novels A Fire Upon the Deep (1992) and A Deepness in the Sky (1999), as well as his novella True Names (1981), which is considered a seminal work of the cyberpunk subgenre. Vinge also wrote several short stories, including “The Ungoverned” (1984) and “Fast Times at Fairmont High” (2002). He was a professor emeritus at San Diego State University.









Keywords: optimistic, pessimistic, logical