Valentin Turchin on 1989

This AI Prediction was made by Valentin Turchin in 1989.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:




Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Valentin Turchin:



Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:




The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

If humanity sets itself goals which are incompatible with integration the result will be an evolutionary dead end: further creative development will become impossible. Then we shall not survive. […]The creative act of free will is the “biological function” of the human being. In the integrated super-being it must be preserved as an inviolable foundation, and the new qualities must appear through it and because of it. Thus the fundamental challenge that the humanity faces now is to achieve an organic synthesis of integration and freedom.


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

Humanity must preserve free will as an inviolable foundation in order to continue creative development. If goals are incompatible with integration, humanity will reach an evolutionary dead end. The challenge now is to achieve an organic synthesis of integration and freedom.




Valentin Turchin was a Russian scientist and engineer who is best known for his pioneering work in the field of cybernetics. He was a professor at the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology and a founding member of the Soviet Cybernetics Association. He developed a range of cybernetic models and theories, and wrote several books on the subject. He was also a prolific inventor, with over 200 patents to his name. He died in 1975.









Keywords: Integration, Freedom, Creative