Tom Mitchell on 2014

This AI Prediction was made by Tom Mitchell in 2014.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

Risks from advanced AI are probably not a significant concern over the coming decades (e.g. the next 20-40 years)



Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Tom Mitchell:

Not provided


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

The text is a conversation between GiveWell staff and a representative from the Against Malaria Foundation (AMF). The AMF representative discusses the organization’s work in distributing insecticide-treated bed nets to prevent malaria in sub-Saharan Africa. The conversation covers topics such as the effectiveness of bed nets, the logistics of distribution, and the potential impact of AMF’s work.



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

It would make sense to think at least a little bit about these questions, and for AI researchers to have a better understanding of how they could or should respond to possible problematic situations.


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

AI researchers should consider how to respond to potential problems that may arise from their work. It is important to think about these questions and have a better understanding of how to address them. This will help ensure that AI technology is developed and used responsibly.




Tom Mitchell is a renowned computer scientist and professor at Carnegie Mellon University. He is widely recognized for his contributions to the field of machine learning and artificial intelligence. Mitchell received his Bachelor’s degree in Electrical Engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in 1973, and his Ph.D. in Computer Science from Stanford University in 1982. Throughout his career, Mitchell has made significant contributions to the development of machine learning algorithms, including decision tree learning, instance-based learning, and reinforcement learning. He has also conducted extensive research on natural language processing, computer vision, and robotics. In addition to his academic work, Mitchell has served as the founding director of the Center for Automated Learning and Discovery at Carnegie Mellon University, and has held leadership positions at several other research institutions. Mitchell has received numerous awards and honors for his contributions to the field of computer science, including the ACM/AAAI Allen Newell Award, the IEEE Neural Network Pioneer Award, and the AAAI Classic Paper Award. He is also a fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the Association for Computing Machinery, and the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence. Overall, Tom Mitchell’s work has had a profound impact on the field of machine learning and artificial intelligence, and his contributions continue to shape the way we approach these technologies today.









Keywords: advanced AI, risks, concern