This AI Prediction was made by Timothy Gowers in 2013.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
I think there’s a 10% chance we’ll have programs as good as humans at doing maths within 25 years, a 50% chance that we’ll have it within 40 years and a 90% chance that we’ll have it by the end of the century.
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Timothy Gowers:
To get to roughly professional competence, a significant degree of self-modification will be needed, so I don’t really see how one can get to human levels without rapidly surpassing those levels.
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
The author predicts a 10% chance of programs being as good as humans at math within 25 years, a 50% chance within 40 years, and a 90% chance by the end of the century. However, achieving human-level competence would require significant self-modification, which could lead to surpassing human abilities.
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
I don’t know, but my instinct tells me that the probability of [human extinction] is pretty small
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
Timothy Gowers is a renowned mathematician and professor at the University of Cambridge. Born in 1963 in London, England, Gowers showed an early aptitude for mathematics and went on to earn his undergraduate degree from the University of Cambridge in 1985. He then pursued his PhD at the same institution, completing it in 1989.Gowers has made significant contributions to the field of mathematics, particularly in the areas of functional analysis, combinatorics, and number theory. He has received numerous awards and honors for his work, including the Fields Medal in 1998, which is considered the highest honor in mathematics.In addition to his research, Gowers is also a dedicated teacher and mentor. He has supervised many PhD students and postdoctoral researchers, and has taught courses at universities around the world. He is also a prolific writer, having authored several books and numerous research papers.Gowers is a Fellow of the Royal Society and a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He has also served as the President of the London Mathematical Society and as a member of the International Mathematical Union’s Executive Committee.Outside of mathematics, Gowers is an avid musician and enjoys playing the piano and the viola. He is also a strong advocate for open access publishing and has been involved in several initiatives to promote free and open access to scientific research.
Keywords: programs, maths, self-modification