Tim Tyler on 2008

This AI Prediction was made by Tim Tyler in 2008.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

The curve is a probabilty density function, illustrating the probability of superintelligence first arising on the specified date.A roughly-bell-shaped curve, peaking around 2025 – with a fairly substantial spread – indicating my estimate of my level of uncertainty about the issue.



Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Tim Tyler:


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

The curve is a probability density function illustrating the probability of superintelligence arising on a specified date. It is a bell-shaped curve, peaking around 2025 with a substantial spread. This spread indicates the level of uncertainty about the issue.



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:




Tim Tyler is a computer programmer and AI researcher who has worked on a variety of projects in the field. He is the creator of the Netalive.org forum, which is dedicated to discussions of artificial intelligence and related topics, and has also contributed to the development of the OpenCog AI system. Tyler has written extensively on the subject of AI, including articles on topics such as AI ethics, intelligence augmentation, and the Singularity. He is also a frequent speaker at conferences and other events related to AI research and development.






Source: http://alife.co.uk/essays/how_long_before_superintelligence/



Keywords: Probability, Superintelligence, 2025