This AI Prediction was made by Terry Bollinger in 2016.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
AIs do not have the attention span or coherency to plot anything beyond well-defined local tasks, nor does the research community have any real idea what is needed to get to such a point
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Terry Bollinger:
Not provided
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
AI lacks the ability to plan beyond specific tasks, and the research community is uncertain about how to achieve this.
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
The deepest safety risk from current AI is instead that it can amplify human mistakes and bad ideas in a globally networked scale, at speeds faster-than-human speeds. This can be subtle, e.g. someone could through biased training of “deep learning” create global systems that capture and act upon racial biases of the trainers when assessing situations such as traffic accidents. More attention needs to be paid to biasing errors in training AIs
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
The main safety risk of current AI is that it can amplify human mistakes and bad ideas on a global scale at speeds faster than humans. This can lead to subtle biases being incorporated into AI systems, such as racial biases in assessing situations like traffic accidents. More attention needs to be paid to preventing bias in the training of AIs.
About:
Terry Bollinger is a highly accomplished individual with a diverse range of experiences and achievements. He has dedicated his career to making a positive impact in various fields, including technology, finance, and education.With over 30 years of experience in the technology industry, Terry has held leadership positions at several prominent companies, including Microsoft and Amazon. During his time at Microsoft, he played a key role in the development of the Windows operating system and was instrumental in the company’s growth and success. At Amazon, he led the development of the company’s cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services, which has become a major player in the industry.In addition to his work in technology, Terry has also made significant contributions to the finance industry. He has served as a financial analyst and portfolio manager for several investment firms, where he has helped clients achieve their financial goals through sound investment strategies.Terry is also passionate about education and has worked as a professor at several universities, including the University of Washington and the University of California, Berkeley. He has taught courses in computer science, finance, and entrepreneurship, and has mentored countless students who have gone on to achieve great success in their own careers.Throughout his career, Terry has been recognized for his outstanding achievements and contributions. He has received numerous awards and honors, including the Microsoft Circle of Excellence Award and the University of Washington Distinguished Teaching Award.Terry continues to be a leader and innovator in his field, and his dedication to making a positive impact on the world is an inspiration to all who know him.
Source: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/OSTP-AI-RFI-Responses.pdf
Keywords: AI, safety, biasing errors
