This AI Prediction was made by Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change in 2006.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change:
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
For δ=0.1 per cent, there is an almost 10% chance of extinction by the end of a century.
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
1. The probability of extinction by the end of the century is almost 10% when the rate of change is 0.1%. 2. This rate of change is considered to be a relatively low rate of change. 3. The probability of extinction increases with higher rates of change.
The Stern Review, also known as the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, is a report commissioned by the British government in 2005 to examine the economic impact of climate change. The report was written by economist Nicholas Stern and argued that the costs of inaction on climate change would be far greater than the costs of taking action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The report has had a significant impact on global policy discussions around climate change.
Keywords: δ, Extinction, Century