Stan Franklin on 2011

This AI Prediction was made by Stan Franklin in 2011.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)




Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Stan Franklin:

What probability do you assign to the possibility of a human level AI, respectively sub-human level AI, to self-modify its way up to massive superhuman intelligence within a matter of hours or days?Stan Franklin: Essentially zero in such a time frame. A lengthy developmental period would be required.


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

Stan Franklin believes that the probability of a human or sub-human AI self-modifying to a massive superhuman intelligence within a matter of hours or days is essentially zero. He believes that a lengthy developmental period would be required for such a feat. Therefore, it is unlikely that an AI could reach superhuman intelligence in such a short time frame.



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

What probability do you assign to the possibility of us being wiped out by badly done AI?Stan Franklin: On the basis of current evidence, I estimate that probability as being tiny. However, the cost would be so high, that the expectation is really difficult to estimate.


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

Stan Franklin believes the probability of us being wiped out by badly done AI is very small. However, the potential cost of such an event is difficult to estimate. Therefore, it is important to take precautions to ensure AI is developed responsibly.




Stan Franklin is a cognitive scientist and computer scientist known for his work on artificial intelligence, consciousness, and robotics. He received his Ph.D. in Computer Science from the University of Illinois in 1969.Franklin has made significant contributions to the development of cognitive architectures, which are computational models of human cognition. He is the creator of the LIDA (Learning Intelligent Distribution Agent) cognitive architecture, which has been used in a variety of applications, including robotics and natural language processing.In terms of AI predictions, Franklin has argued that consciousness is a necessary component of intelligent systems. He has proposed that conscious systems will be able to make decisions that are more robust and adaptable than those made by unconscious systems. Franklin has also emphasized the need for AI systems to be transparent and explainable to their users to ensure their trustworthiness.









Keywords: AI, Self-modify, Wiped Out