This AI Prediction was made by Sendhil Mullainathan in 2014.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Sendhil Mullainathan:
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
The article argues that the current state of artificial intelligence (AI) is not as advanced as many people believe. The author contends that AI is still limited in its ability to understand and interpret complex human emotions and experiences. The article suggests that the hype surrounding AI may be more of a myth than a reality.
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
We should be afraid. Not of intelligent machines. But of machines making decisions that they do not have the intelligence to make. I am far more afraid of machine stupidity than of machine intelligence.
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
The author believes that we should not be afraid of intelligent machines, but rather of machines making decisions beyond their intelligence. The author is more concerned about machine stupidity than machine intelligence. Overall, the fear should be about machines making decisions they are not capable of making.
Extended Bio of Sendhil MullainathanSendhil Mullainathan is a renowned economist and social scientist who has made significant contributions to the field of behavioral economics. He was born in 1973 in Tamil Nadu, India, and grew up in the United States. Mullainathan received his undergraduate degree in computer science and economics from Cornell University and his Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University.Mullainathan is currently a Professor of Computation and Behavioral Science at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. He is also a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. Previously, he was a Professor of Economics at Harvard University and a Founding Director of the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab.Mullainathan’s research focuses on the intersection of psychology and economics, with a particular emphasis on understanding how people make decisions in situations of uncertainty. He has published numerous articles in top academic journals, including the American Economic Review, the Journal of Political Economy, and the Quarterly Journal of Economics. He is also the co-author of the book “Scarcity: Why Having Too Little Means So Much,” which explores how scarcity affects decision-making and behavior.In addition to his academic work, Mullainathan has served as a consultant to various organizations, including the World Bank, the United Nations, and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. He has also been recognized for his contributions to the field of economics, receiving numerous awards and honors, including a MacArthur Fellowship in 2002.Overall, Sendhil Mullainathan is a leading figure in the field of behavioral economics, whose research has shed light on how people make decisions in complex and uncertain situations. His work has important implications for policymakers, businesses, and individuals seeking to understand and navigate the challenges of modern life.
Keywords: machines, decisions, intelligence