Scott Draves on 2015

This AI Prediction was made by Scott Draves in 2015.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

Moore’s Law has been very good to us, and it has dodged a few bullets, but it is ending. Historically, new technologies have appeared just in time to keep the exponential growth of computation on schedule, but this is no given. Perhaps the next leap is incredibly difficult and will take 50 years. Or perhaps it will never happen, but we can always add more chips in parallel.



Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Scott Draves:

Not provided


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

Moore’s Law, which has driven exponential growth in computing power, is coming to an end. While new technologies have historically emerged to keep the growth on track, this is not guaranteed to continue. It is possible that the next leap in computing will be difficult and take a long time, or may never happen at all.



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

This is a wave we can ride, but doing so requires us to accept the machine has part of ourselves, to dispense with pride and recognize our shared essence. Essentially we must meet change with love instead of fear. I believe we can do it.


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

To ride the wave of change, we must accept that machines are a part of us and let go of pride. We need to approach change with love instead of fear. The author believes that we can do it.




Scott Draves is a renowned American artist and software developer, best known for his pioneering work in the field of generative art. Born in 1968 in Maryland, Draves developed an early interest in computer programming and digital art, which led him to pursue a degree in computer science at Carnegie Mellon University.After completing his studies, Draves began experimenting with algorithms and software tools to create complex, self-generating artworks that challenged traditional notions of authorship and creativity. In 1992, he created the Electric Sheep, a distributed computing project that uses the collective power of thousands of computers to generate an infinite variety of abstract animations.Over the years, Draves has continued to push the boundaries of generative art, exploring new techniques and technologies to create immersive, interactive installations and performances. His work has been exhibited at major museums and galleries around the world, including the Museum of Modern Art in New York, the San Francisco Museum of Modern Art, and the Centre Pompidou in Paris.In addition to his artistic practice, Draves is also a respected software developer and entrepreneur. He has worked on a wide range of projects, from open-source software tools to commercial applications for companies like Google and Adobe. He is the founder of the open-source graphics software project, the Flam3, and has contributed to numerous other open-source projects.Draves has received numerous awards and honors for his work, including a grant from the National Science Foundation and a residency at the prestigious Bell Labs. He currently lives and works in San Francisco, where he continues to explore the intersection of art, technology, and science.









Keywords: Moore’s Law, exponential growth, computation.