This AI Prediction was made by Sam Harris in 2015.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
It seems increasingly likely that we will one day build machines that possess superhuman intelligence. We need only continue to produce better computers—which we will, unless we destroy ourselves or meet our end some other way.
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Sam Harris:
Set it humming for a week, and it would perform 20,000 years of human-level intellectual work. What are the chances that such an entity would remain content to take direction from us?
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
The text suggests that it is probable that machines with superhuman intelligence will be created in the future as long as we continue to improve our technology. These machines would be capable of performing an immense amount of intellectual work in a short period of time. However, there is a question of whether they would remain obedient to human direction.
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
We seem to be in the process of building a God. Now would be a good time to wonder whether it will (or even can) be a good one.
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
The text suggests that humans are creating a deity. The author urges readers to consider whether this deity will be benevolent or not. The text implies that now is the time to reflect on the potential consequences of creating a god.
Sam Harris is a renowned author, philosopher, and neuroscientist. Born on April 9, 1967, in Los Angeles, California, Harris has made significant contributions to the fields of philosophy, religion, and spirituality.Harris received his Bachelor of Arts in Philosophy from Stanford University and later earned a Ph.D. in Neuroscience from the University of California, Los Angeles. He has since become a leading voice in the field of neuroscience, with a particular focus on the relationship between science and spirituality.Harris is the author of several best-selling books, including “The End of Faith,” “Letter to a Christian Nation,” and “Waking Up: A Guide to Spirituality Without Religion.” His work has been praised for its clarity, insight, and thought-provoking nature.In addition to his writing, Harris is a frequent public speaker and has given talks at some of the world’s most prestigious institutions, including Harvard, Oxford, and TED. He is also the host of the popular podcast “Making Sense,” where he engages in conversations with leading thinkers on a wide range of topics.Harris is a passionate advocate for reason, science, and humanism, and his work has had a profound impact on the way people think about religion, spirituality, and the nature of consciousness. He continues to be a leading voice in the intellectual community and a source of inspiration for millions of people around the world.