This AI Prediction was made by S. Abbas Raza in 2015.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
So both potential roads to an AI (at least, ones achievable on a less-than-geological timescale) will fail to give that AI the purposive autonomy, free of the intentionality of its creators, that might actually threaten them.
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from S. Abbas Raza:
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
Neither of the two possible paths to creating an AI will result in the AI having true autonomy that could pose a threat to its creators. This is because the AI will still be influenced by the intentions of its creators. Therefore, the fear of AI becoming a threat to humanity may not be justified.
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
The rumors of the enslavement or death of the human species at the hands of an artificial intelligence are highly exaggerated, because they assume that an AI will have a teleological autonomy akin to our own. I don’t think anything less than a fully Darwinian process of evolution can give that to any creature.
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
The idea that artificial intelligence will enslave or kill humans is exaggerated because it assumes that AI will have the same autonomy as humans. The author believes that only a fully Darwinian process of evolution can give a creature such autonomy. Therefore, the rumors of human enslavement or death at the hands of AI are unfounded.
S. Abbas Raza is a highly accomplished individual with a diverse range of experiences and achievements. Born and raised in Pakistan, he moved to the United States to pursue his education and has since become a prominent figure in the fields of science, technology, and media.Raza holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Physics from the California Institute of Technology and a Master of Science degree in Electrical Engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He has also completed coursework towards a Ph.D. in Physics at the University of California, Berkeley.Throughout his career, Raza has worked in a variety of roles, including as a research scientist at Bell Laboratories, a software engineer at Microsoft, and a consultant for various technology companies. He has also been involved in the media industry, serving as the co-founder and editor of the popular online magazine 3 Quarks Daily.In addition to his professional accomplishments, Raza is also a respected writer and thinker. He has published numerous articles and essays on a wide range of topics, including science, philosophy, and culture. He is also a frequent speaker at conferences and events, where he shares his insights and perspectives on the latest trends and developments in technology and society.Overall, S. Abbas Raza is a dynamic and multifaceted individual who has made significant contributions to a variety of fields. His passion for learning and exploration has driven him to achieve great success, and his work continues to inspire and inform others around the world.
Keywords: AI, autonomy, intentionality