Ryan Hagemann/ Niskanen Center on 2016

This AI Prediction was made by Ryan Hagemann/ Niskanen Center in 2016.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

But existing AI is in an early, almost childlike stage of development. Current AI technology doesn’t remotely approach the level of sophistication that would merit the level of concern some critics have encouraged.



Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Ryan Hagemann/ Niskanen Center:

Not provided


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

AI technology is still in its early stages of development and is not yet sophisticated enough to warrant the level of concern expressed by some critics. The current state of AI is comparable to that of a child. The level of sophistication required to justify the level of concern expressed by some critics is not yet present in AI technology.



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

AI is unlikely to herald the end times. It is not clear at this point whether a runaway malevolent AI, for example, is a real-world possibility. In the absence of any quantifiable risk along these lines government officials should refrain from framing discussions of AI in alarming terms that suggest that there is a known, rather than entirely speculative, risk. Fanciful doomsday scenarios belong in science fiction novels and high-school debate clubs, not in serious policy discussions about an existing, mundane, and beneficial technology.


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

There is no evidence to suggest that AI will bring about the end of the world. The possibility of a malevolent AI is still uncertain and should not be used to frame discussions of AI in alarming terms. Doomsday scenarios are better suited for science fiction and debate clubs, not serious policy discussions about AI.




Ryan Hagemann is a prominent figure in the world of public policy and advocacy. He is currently affiliated with the Niskanen Center, a nonpartisan think tank that focuses on promoting individual freedom, open markets, and effective government. Hagemann’s expertise lies in the intersection of technology and public policy. He has written extensively on topics such as privacy, cybersecurity, and the regulation of emerging technologies. He is a sought-after speaker and has presented at numerous conferences and events around the world.Prior to joining the Niskanen Center, Hagemann worked as a research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. He has also held positions at the American Enterprise Institute and the Competitive Enterprise Institute.Hagemann holds a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science from the University of Michigan and a Master of Public Policy from George Mason University. He is a member of several professional organizations, including the International Association of Privacy Professionals and the Technology Policy Institute.In addition to his work in public policy, Hagemann is an avid traveler and photographer. He has visited over 30 countries and his photographs have been featured in several publications.






Source: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/OSTP-AI-RFI-Responses.pdf