This AI Prediction was made by Rolf Dobelli in 2015.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
I don’t see a reason why this sort of evolution would be more than two or three orders of magnitude faster than biological evolution (if at all)—which would bring the emergence of self-aware Alien AI down to roughly a million years.
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Rolf Dobelli:
Not provided
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
The emergence of self-aware Alien AI could take roughly a million years, according to a scientist. The evolution of AI is not expected to be significantly faster than biological evolution. The scientist sees no reason why AI evolution would be more than two or three orders of magnitude faster than biological evolution.
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
Thus, the danger of AI is not inherent to AI, but rests on our over-reliance on it. Artificial Thinking is not going to evolve to self-awareness in our lifetime. In fact, it’s not going to happen in literally a thousand years.
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
The danger of AI is not due to the technology itself, but rather our dependence on it. Self-aware AI is not expected to develop in the near future, or even for a thousand years.
About:
Rolf Dobelli is a Swiss author, entrepreneur, and thinker who has made significant contributions to the fields of business, philosophy, and psychology. Born in 1966 in Lucerne, Switzerland, Dobelli studied business administration and philosophy at the University of St. Gallen, where he earned his MBA.After completing his studies, Dobelli worked as a financial analyst and later founded several successful companies, including WORLD.MINDS, a global community of thought leaders. He is also the co-founder of getAbstract, a leading provider of compressed knowledge, and of Zurich.Minds, a community of entrepreneurs and investors.Dobelli is best known for his work as an author and thinker. He has written several books, including the international bestsellers “The Art of Thinking Clearly” and “The Art of the Good Life”. His books have been translated into more than 40 languages and have sold millions of copies worldwide.Dobelli’s work focuses on the intersection of business, philosophy, and psychology. He is particularly interested in the ways in which cognitive biases and heuristics can affect decision-making, and he has written extensively on the subject. His work has been featured in publications such as The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Guardian.In addition to his writing and entrepreneurial work, Dobelli is a sought-after speaker and has given talks at some of the world’s most prestigious institutions, including Harvard Business School, Oxford University, and the London School of Economics.Overall, Rolf Dobelli is a multifaceted thinker and entrepreneur who has made significant contributions to the fields of business, philosophy, and psychology. His work has had a profound impact on the way people think about decision-making and the pursuit of a fulfilling life.
Source: https://www.edge.org/responses/q2015
Keywords: AI, self-awareness, evolution