Richard H. Thaler on 2015

This AI Prediction was made by Richard H. Thaler in 2015.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

Nevertheless, fears about computers taking over the world are premature.



Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Richard H. Thaler:

Not provided


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

More disturbing to me is the stubborn reluctance in many segments of society to allow computers to take over tasks that simple models perform demonstrably better than humans.


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

Many people are hesitant to let computers take over tasks that they can perform better than humans. This reluctance is concerning to the author. The author finds it disturbing that some segments of society are resistant to this change.




Extended Bio of Richard H. ThalerRichard H. Thaler is an American economist and professor of behavioral science and economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. He was born on September 12, 1945, in East Orange, New Jersey, and grew up in a Jewish family. Thaler received his bachelor’s degree in economics from Case Western Reserve University in 1967 and his master’s degree in economics from the University of Rochester in 1970. He then earned his Ph.D. in economics from the University of Rochester in 1974. Thaler is widely recognized as one of the pioneers of behavioral economics, a field that combines insights from psychology and economics to better understand how people make decisions. He has made significant contributions to the study of decision-making, including the concept of “mental accounting,” which describes how people categorize and evaluate financial decisions. Thaler has also been a vocal advocate for the use of “nudges” in public policy, which are small changes in the environment that can influence people’s behavior in positive ways. He co-authored the best-selling book “Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness” with Cass Sunstein in 2008, which popularized the concept of nudging. In 2017, Thaler was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his contributions to behavioral economics. He is a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and a member of the National Academy of Sciences. Thaler continues to teach and conduct research at the University of Chicago, where he has been a faculty member since 1995. He has also served as a consultant to various organizations, including the United States government and the World Bank.









Keywords: computers, tasks, humans