Ramez Naam on 2014

This AI Prediction was made by Ramez Naam in 2014.

Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

As for when we’ll have digital minds, if I had to hazard a guess, I would put ‘uploads’ in the first half of the 22nd century, a century or a bit more from now. But the error bars on this are quite large.

Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Ramez Naam:

I believe a FOOM is unlikely to occur at any time.

Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

The author predicts that digital minds, or “uploads,” will likely be developed in the first half of the 22nd century, but acknowledges a large margin of error in this prediction. They also state that a FOOM (an intelligence explosion) is unlikely to occur at any time.

The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

About:

Ramez Naam is a renowned author, futurist, and technologist. He is best known for his groundbreaking work in the field of artificial intelligence and its impact on society. Naam has authored several books, including the award-winning Nexus trilogy, which explores the ethical and societal implications of advanced technologies.Naam’s expertise in the field of technology has led him to work with some of the world’s leading companies, including Microsoft and Google. He has also served as the CEO of Apex Nanotechnologies, a company focused on developing advanced materials for energy storage.In addition to his work in technology, Naam is a sought-after speaker and has delivered keynote addresses at numerous conferences and events around the world. He is also a regular contributor to publications such as Forbes and Scientific American.Naam holds a degree in computer science from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a master’s degree in business administration from the Harvard Business School. He is a member of the World Future Society and the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies.Naam’s work has been recognized with numerous awards, including the H.G. Wells Award for Outstanding Contributions to Transhumanism and the Endeavour Award for Best Science Fiction Novel. He continues to be a leading voice in the field of technology and its impact on society, and his insights and expertise are highly valued by industry leaders and policymakers alike.