This AI Prediction was made by PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCEExecutive Office of the President National Science and Technology Council Committee on Technology in 2016.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
Although it is very unlikely that machines will exhibit broadly-applicable intelligence comparable to or exceeding that of humans in the next 20 years, it is to be expected that machines will reach and exceed human performance on more and more tasks
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCEExecutive Office of the President National Science and Technology Council Committee on Technology:
Not provided
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
Machines are unlikely to exhibit broadly-applicable intelligence comparable to humans in the next 20 years. However, it is expected that machines will surpass human performance on more and more tasks.
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
The best way to build capacity for addressing the longer-term speculative risks is to attack the less extreme risks already seen today, such as current security, privacy, and safety risks, while investing in research on longer-term capabilities and how their challenges might be managed. Additionally, as research and applications in the field continue to mature, practitioners of AI in government and business should approach advances with appropriate consideration of the long-term societal and ethical questions –in additional to just the technical questions –that such advances portend. Although prudence dictates some attention to the possibility that harmful super-intelligence might someday become possible, these concerns should not bet he main driver of public policy for AI
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
To address longer-term speculative risks in AI, it is important to tackle current security, privacy, and safety risks while investing in research on longer-term capabilities. Practitioners of AI in government and business should consider long-term societal and ethical questions in addition to technical questions. Concerns about harmful super-intelligence should not be the main driver of public policy for AI.
About:
As a member of the Executive Office of the President’s National Science and Technology Council Committee on Technology, I am dedicated to preparing for the future of artificial intelligence. With a passion for innovation and a deep understanding of the potential of AI, I am committed to ensuring that our society is equipped to harness the power of this transformative technology.Throughout my career, I have worked tirelessly to advance the field of AI, collaborating with leading experts and organizations to develop cutting-edge solutions that can improve our lives in countless ways. From developing intelligent systems that can automate complex tasks to creating algorithms that can analyze vast amounts of data, I have been at the forefront of this exciting field.As a thought leader in the AI community, I have also been a vocal advocate for responsible AI development. I believe that we must approach this technology with caution and care, ensuring that it is used in ways that benefit society as a whole. By working together to establish ethical guidelines and best practices, we can ensure that AI is used to create a better future for all.With a deep commitment to innovation, a passion for AI, and a dedication to responsible development, I am excited to continue working towards a future where this transformative technology is used to create a better world for all.
Source: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/whitehouse_files/microsites/ostp/NSTC/preparing_for_the_future_of_ai.pdf
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