Peter Norvig on 2015

This AI Prediction was made by Peter Norvig in 2015.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

There is a possibility that we will soon see a widespread increase in the capabilities of autonomous systems



Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Peter Norvig:

I think this fetishizes “intelligence” as a monolithic superpower, and I think reality is more nuanced. […]. I also know from computational complexity theory that there are a wide class of problems that are completely resistant to intelligence, in the sense that, no matter how clever you are, you won’t have enough computing power.


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

The author believes that the idea of intelligence as a singular superpower is oversimplified. They also point out that there are certain problems that even the most intelligent systems may not be able to solve due to limitations in computing power. Despite the possibility of increased capabilities in autonomous systems, there are still limitations to what they can achieve.



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

Getting this right is difficult, but it is difficult mostly because the world is complex; adding AI to the mix doesn’t fundamentally change things. I suggest being careful with our mechanism design and using the best tools for the job regardless of whether the tool has the label “AI” on it or not.


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

The complexity of the world makes it difficult to get things right, and adding AI doesn’t change that. It is important to be cautious with mechanism design and use the best tools available, regardless of whether they are labeled as AI or not.




Peter Norvig is a renowned computer scientist and artificial intelligence expert. He was born on December 14, 1956, in Harrodsburg, Kentucky, USA. Norvig received his Bachelor of Science degree in Applied Mathematics from Brown University in 1978 and his Ph.D. in Computer Science from the University of California, Berkeley in 1986.Norvig has made significant contributions to the field of computer science, particularly in the areas of natural language processing, machine learning, and artificial intelligence. He has authored several books, including “Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach,” which is widely regarded as one of the most comprehensive textbooks on the subject.Norvig has held various positions in academia and industry throughout his career. He was a research scientist at NASA Ames Research Center and a faculty member at the University of Southern California and the University of California, Berkeley. He also worked at Sun Microsystems and Google, where he served as Director of Research.Norvig has received numerous awards and honors for his contributions to the field of computer science. In 2011, he was inducted into the Association for Computing Machinery’s SIGAI Academy, and in 2012, he was elected a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.Today, Norvig continues to be an influential figure in the field of artificial intelligence. He is currently the Director of Research at Google and is actively involved in research and development in the areas of machine learning, natural language processing, and robotics.