Paul Davies on 2015

This AI Prediction was made by Paul Davies in 2015.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

Very soon the distinction between artificial and natural will melt away. Designed Intelligence will increasingly rely on synthetic biology and organic fabrication, in which neural circuitry will be grown from genetically modified cells, and spontaneously self-assemble into networks of functional modules



Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Paul Davies:

Not provided


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

Artificial and natural will become indistinguishable as Designed Intelligence relies more on synthetic biology and organic fabrication. Neural circuitry will be grown from genetically modified cells and self-assemble into functional modules. This will blur the line between artificial and natural intelligence.



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

There are then three possible futures, each with its own ethical challenges. In one, humans hold back from enhancement because of ethical concerns, and agree to subordinate their hegemony to DI. In the second scenario, instead of sidelining themselves, humans modify their brains (and bodies) using the same technology, and subsequently hand over this enhancement management to DI, achieving a type of superhuman status that can exist alongside (yet remain inferior to) DI. Finally, one can imagine DI and AHI (augmented human intelligence) merging at some point in the future.


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

There are three potential futures regarding the relationship between humans and artificial intelligence. In the first, humans choose not to enhance themselves and instead allow AI to take control. In the second, humans enhance themselves and then hand over control to AI. The third possibility is that AI and augmented human intelligence merge together.




Paul Davies is a renowned physicist, cosmologist, and author. Born in London in 1946, Davies received his PhD in theoretical physics from University College London in 1970. He has since held academic positions at various institutions, including the University of Cambridge, the University of Adelaide, and Arizona State University, where he is currently a Regents’ Professor and Director of the Beyond Center for Fundamental Concepts in Science.Davies has made significant contributions to the fields of quantum mechanics, cosmology, and astrobiology. He is particularly known for his work on the origin of life, the nature of time, and the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. He has authored over 30 books, including The Mind of God, About Time, and The Eerie Silence, and has received numerous awards for his scientific and literary achievements.In addition to his academic work, Davies is a frequent commentator on science and religion, and has been involved in various public outreach initiatives. He has also served as a consultant for several science fiction films, including Interstellar and The Martian.Davies is a Fellow of the Royal Society of London, the American Physical Society, and the World Academy of Art and Science. He has been awarded the Templeton Prize, the Faraday Prize, and the Kelvin Medal, among other honors. He currently resides in Arizona with his wife and two children.









Keywords: artificial intelligence, synthetic biology, organic fabrication