This AI Prediction was made by Norbert Wiener in 1960.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Norbert Wiener:
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
Disastrous results are to be expected not merely in the world of fairy tales but in the real world wherever two agencies essentially foreign to each other are coupled in the attempt to achieve a common purpose. […]If we use, to achieve our purposes, a mechanical agency with whose operation we cannot efficiently interfere once we have started it, because the action is so fast and irrevocable that we have not the data to intervene before the action is complete, then we had better be quite sure that the purpose put into the machine is the purpose which we really desire and not merely a colorful imitation of it.
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
1. When two agencies with different goals attempt to work together, the results can be disastrous.2. We must be sure that the purpose we put into a machine is the one we really desire.3. If the action is too fast and irrevocable, we may not have the data to intervene before it is complete.
Norbert Wiener was an American mathematician and philosopher, known for his work in the field of cybernetics. He was born on November 26, 1894, in Columbia, Missouri, USA, and died on March 18, 1964, in Stockholm, Sweden.Wiener was a child prodigy who entered college at the age of 11 and received his PhD in mathematics from Harvard University at the age of 18. He made significant contributions to many areas of mathematics, including probability theory, Fourier analysis, and harmonic analysis.In the 1940s, Wiener became interested in the emerging field of cybernetics, which he defined as “the scientific study of control and communication in the animal and the machine.” He saw cybernetics as a way to bridge the gap between the natural and artificial worlds, and to understand the behavior of complex systems.Wiener’s work on cybernetics influenced a wide range of fields, including computer science, artificial intelligence, robotics, and systems theory. His book “Cybernetics: or Control and Communication in the Animal and the Machine,” published in 1948, is considered a classic in the field.Wiener received many honors during his lifetime, including the National Medal of Science in 1963, just one year before his death. He is remembered as one of the most influential mathematicians and thinkers of the 20th century.
Keywords: Agencies, Common Purpose, Mechanical Agency