This AI Prediction was made by Nick Bostrom/ Future of Humanity Institute in 2016.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
Although AI systems are good at some narrowly defined tasks, they currently lack the generality of human intelligence. But achieving human level general intelligence, or even surpassing it, might be possible in the decades to come. A recent survey of AI experts found that most respondents think that AI will be intelligent enough to carry out most human professions at least as well as a typical human before 2050
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Nick Bostrom/ Future of Humanity Institute:
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
AI systems are currently limited in their abilities compared to human intelligence. However, experts believe that AI may achieve human-level general intelligence or even surpass it in the future. A survey of AI experts suggests that AI may be able to perform most human professions as well as a typical human by 2050.
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
For sufficiently advanced systems, the consequences of such accidents could pose serious risks to human society. […] These concerns are also shared by some of the most prominent experts within the field of AI, including Stuart Russell (Professor at UC Berkeley), Demis Hassabis and Shane Legg (co-founders of Google DeepMind), Ilya Sutskever (Research Director at OpenAI), Marcus Hutter (Professor at Australian National University), and Murray Shanahan (Professor at Imperial College London), to name a few.
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
Advanced AI systems could pose serious risks to human society if accidents occur, according to experts in the field. Prominent figures such as Stuart Russell, Demis Hassabis, and Ilya Sutskever have expressed concerns about the potential consequences. Other experts, including Marcus Hutter and Murray Shanahan, share these worries.
Nick Bostrom is a renowned philosopher and futurist who has dedicated his career to exploring the potential impact of emerging technologies on humanity. He is the founding director of the Future of Humanity Institute at the University of Oxford, where he leads a team of researchers in investigating the long-term prospects for human civilization.Bostrom’s work spans a wide range of topics, from artificial intelligence and biotechnology to existential risks and the ethics of human enhancement. He is particularly interested in the potential for transformative technologies to radically alter the course of human history, and has argued that we need to take a more proactive approach to managing these risks if we are to ensure a positive future for humanity.In addition to his academic work, Bostrom is a prolific author and public speaker. His books, including “Superintelligence” and “Human Enhancement,” have been widely praised for their thought-provoking insights into the future of technology and its impact on society. He has also given numerous talks and interviews on topics ranging from the ethics of AI to the future of space exploration.Overall, Bostrom’s work has had a profound impact on our understanding of the potential risks and opportunities associated with emerging technologies. His insights have helped to shape the public debate around these issues, and his research continues to inform policy decisions and shape the direction of scientific inquiry.