Neil Gershenfeld on 2015

This AI Prediction was made by Neil Gershenfeld in 2015.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

Not provided



Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Neil Gershenfeld:

Then there appears to be a revolution when the exponential explodes, along with exaggerated claims and warnings to match, but it’s a straight extrapolation of what’s been apparent on a log plot. That’s around when growth limits usually kick in, the exponential crosses over to a sigmoid, and the extreme hopes and fears disappear.


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

When exponential growth reaches its limit, a revolution occurs and exaggerated claims and warnings are made. However, this is simply a straight extrapolation of what has been seen on a log plot. Growth limits usually kick in at this point, causing the exponential to cross over to a sigmoid and extreme hopes and fears to disappear.



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

Asking whether or not they’re dangerous is prudent, as it is for any technology. From steam trains to gunpowder to nuclear power to biotechnology we’ve never not been simultaneously doomed and about to be saved. In each case salvation has lain in the much more interesting details, rather than a simplistic yes/no argument for or against.


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

It is wise to question the potential danger of any technology. Throughout history, various technologies have been both seen as doomed and capable of saving us. The key to understanding their potential lies in examining the details rather than relying on a simple yes or no answer.




Neil Gershenfeld is a renowned physicist, computer scientist, and inventor who has made significant contributions to the field of digital fabrication. He is the Director of the Center for Bits and Atoms at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), where he also serves as a Professor of Media Arts and Sciences.Gershenfeld’s research focuses on the intersection of computer science, physics, and engineering, with a particular emphasis on the development of new technologies that enable people to create their own digital devices and systems. He is widely recognized as the founder of the field of digital fabrication, which involves using computer-controlled machines to create physical objects from digital designs.In addition to his work at MIT, Gershenfeld has also served as a Visiting Professor at several other institutions, including Harvard University, the University of California, Berkeley, and the Santa Fe Institute. He has authored numerous scientific papers and books, including the influential book “Fab: The Coming Revolution on Your Desktop–From Personal Computers to Personal Fabrication.”Gershenfeld has received numerous awards and honors for his contributions to science and technology, including the prestigious MacArthur Fellowship, also known as the “genius grant.” He is also a Fellow of the American Physical Society and a member of the National Academy of Engineering.Beyond his academic work, Gershenfeld is also an accomplished musician and has performed with several notable musicians, including Yo-Yo Ma and the Kronos Quartet. He is also a frequent speaker and commentator on issues related to science, technology, and society, and has appeared on numerous television and radio programs.









Keywords: revolution, exponential, growth limits