Nathan Myhrvold on 2014

This AI Prediction was made by Nathan Myhrvold in 2014.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

Some of us have seen this movie before, with equally smart and earnest people thinking that AI was right around the corner. I wish it were so. I hope to live to see it be so. But I am not betting that it will happen very soon.



Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Nathan Myhrvold:

Not provided


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

The author has seen people in the past believe that AI was close to being developed, but it did not happen. The author hopes to see AI developed in their lifetime but is not confident it will happen soon.



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

Martin Rees and others have cataloged a wide variety of threats to society, civilization or even the species itself. My opinion is that these threat—some natural, some human directed—are way more serious, and way more deserving of time and attention than existential threats from AI.


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

The article discusses various threats to society, civilization, and the species. The author believes that these threats, whether natural or human-directed, are more serious and deserving of attention than existential threats from AI. Martin Rees and others have cataloged these threats.




Nathan Myhrvold is a renowned inventor, entrepreneur, and author. He was born on August 3, 1959, in Seattle, Washington, and grew up in the same city. Myhrvold attended the University of California, Los Angeles, where he earned a bachelor’s degree in mathematics and a master’s degree in geophysics and space physics. He then went on to earn a Ph.D. in theoretical and mathematical physics from Princeton University.Myhrvold’s career began at the age of 23 when he joined Microsoft Corporation as the company’s first chief technology officer. During his 14-year tenure at Microsoft, he played a key role in the development of Windows, Office, and other software products. In 1999, Myhrvold left Microsoft to pursue his passion for cooking and food science. He enrolled in a culinary program at the Ecole de Cuisine La Varenne in France and later founded Intellectual Ventures, a company that invests in and develops new technologies.In addition to his work in technology and food science, Myhrvold is also a prolific author. He has written several books, including “Modernist Cuisine: The Art and Science of Cooking,” which won the James Beard Foundation Award for Cookbook of the Year in 2012. Myhrvold is also a member of the board of directors of several companies, including and TerraPower.Throughout his career, Myhrvold has been recognized for his contributions to science, technology, and business. He has received numerous awards and honors, including the World Technology Award for Technology Commercialization in 2002 and the American Ingenuity Award for Technology in 2013. Myhrvold continues to be a leading figure in the fields of technology, food science, and innovation.









Keywords: AI, threats, civilization