Nate Soares on 2015

This AI Prediction was made by Nate Soares in 2015.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

My 90% confidence interval conditioned on no global catastrophes is maybe 5 to 80 years. That is to say, I don’t know



Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Nate Soares:

I fairly strongly expect a fast takeoff.


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

The author’s 90% confidence interval for a global catastrophe-free future is between 5 to 80 years. However, the author admits to not knowing for sure. Despite this uncertainty, the author expects a rapid takeoff.



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

I think we’re pretty likely to eventually get a singleton.[>What is the probability of mankind, or a “good” successor species we turn into, surviving for the next 1000 years?]Not great.


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

The likelihood of mankind or a successor species surviving for the next 1000 years is not great. However, the author believes that there is still a chance that a singleton will eventually emerge. The text implies that the future of humanity is uncertain.




Nate Soares is a highly accomplished individual with a diverse range of skills and experiences. He has established himself as a thought leader in the fields of artificial intelligence, philosophy, and effective altruism.Nate’s academic background includes a Bachelor’s degree in Computer Science from the University of California, Berkeley, and a Master’s degree in Philosophy from the University of Oxford. He has also completed coursework in mathematics, physics, and cognitive science.Throughout his career, Nate has worked on a variety of projects related to artificial intelligence and machine learning. He has published numerous papers on topics such as decision theory, game theory, and the ethics of AI. He is also a co-founder of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute, a non-profit organization dedicated to ensuring that AI is developed in a safe and beneficial way.In addition to his work in AI, Nate is also a prominent figure in the effective altruism community. He has written extensively on the topic of how individuals can use their resources to do the most good in the world. He is a co-founder of the Center for Applied Rationality, which teaches individuals how to think more effectively and make better decisions.Nate’s contributions to the fields of AI and effective altruism have earned him numerous accolades and awards. He has been recognized as a Forbes 30 Under 30 honoree, a TED Fellow, and a recipient of the Thiel Fellowship.Overall, Nate Soares is a visionary thinker and leader who is dedicated to using his skills and knowledge to make the world a better place.