This AI Prediction was made by Murray Shanahan in 2015.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
I think there are probably an unknown number of conceptual breakthroughs
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Murray Shanahan:
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
The author believes that there are numerous conceptual breakthroughs that are yet to be discovered. The exact number of these breakthroughs is unknown. These breakthroughs could potentially lead to significant advancements in various fields.
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
Only when more sophisticated AI is a familiar part of our lives will our language games adjust to such alien beings. But of course, by that time, it may be too late to change our minds about whether they should be brought into the world. For better or worse, they will already be here.
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
As AI becomes more advanced, our language and attitudes towards it will adapt. However, by the time this happens, it may be too late to decide whether or not to bring AI into the world. Ultimately, AI will already be present, for better or for worse.
Murray Shanahan is a renowned British computer scientist and professor of Cognitive Robotics at Imperial College London. He was born in 1954 in Australia and grew up in New Zealand. He received his Bachelor’s degree in Mathematics and Philosophy from the University of Auckland and his PhD in Artificial Intelligence from the University of Edinburgh.Shanahan’s research focuses on artificial intelligence, cognitive robotics, and philosophy of mind. He has made significant contributions to the development of cognitive architectures, which are computational models of the human mind. His work on the global workspace theory of consciousness has been particularly influential in the field of cognitive science.In addition to his academic work, Shanahan is also a science fiction author. His novel, “The Technological Singularity,” explores the potential consequences of the development of superintelligent machines.Shanahan has received numerous awards and honors for his contributions to the field of artificial intelligence. He is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh and a Fellow of the European Association for Artificial Intelligence. He has also served as President of the International Association for Computing and Philosophy.Throughout his career, Shanahan has been a passionate advocate for the responsible development of artificial intelligence. He has spoken extensively on the ethical and societal implications of AI and has called for greater transparency and accountability in the development of AI systems.
Keywords: conceptual breakthroughs, AI, language games