Michael Shermer on 2015

This AI Prediction was made by Michael Shermer in 2015.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

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Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Michael Shermer:

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Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

Such incremental protopian progress is what we see in most technologies, including and especially artificial intelligence, which will continue to serve us in the manner we desire and need. Instead of Great Leap Forward or Giant Phase Backward, think Small Step Upward.


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

The text discusses the concept of incremental progress in technology, particularly in the field of artificial intelligence. It suggests that this type of progress is more desirable than sudden leaps forward or backward. The author encourages a mindset of small steps upward in technological advancement.




Michael Shermer is an accomplished author, historian, and science communicator. Born on September 8, 1954, in Glendale, California, Shermer developed a passion for science and skepticism at a young age. He earned his Bachelor of Arts in psychology from Pepperdine University and his Master of Science in experimental psychology from California State University, Fullerton.Shermer is the founder of the Skeptics Society, a non-profit organization dedicated to promoting critical thinking and scientific inquiry. He is also the editor-in-chief of Skeptic magazine, which explores controversial topics such as pseudoscience, alternative medicine, and conspiracy theories.As an author, Shermer has written numerous books, including “Why People Believe Weird Things,” “The Believing Brain,” and “Heavens on Earth.” He has also contributed to publications such as The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and Scientific American.In addition to his work in skepticism and science communication, Shermer is a historian of science and has written extensively on the history of evolutionary theory. He has also taught courses on the history of science at Occidental College and Claremont Graduate University.Shermer has received numerous awards for his work, including the American Humanist Association’s Isaac Asimov Science Award and the Balles Prize in Critical Thinking. He is a fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science and a member of the advisory board of the Secular Coalition for America.Overall, Michael Shermer is a prominent figure in the world of skepticism and science communication, known for his insightful writing, engaging lectures, and commitment to promoting critical thinking and scientific inquiry.






Source: https://www.edge.org/responses/q2015



Keywords: incremental progress, artificial intelligence, Small Step Upward