Michael Shermer on 2014

This AI Prediction was made by Michael Shermer in 2014.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

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Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Michael Shermer:

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Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

NI organisms may program AI machines to harm or kill other NI organisms (they’re called drones or IEDs) or for an NI organism to program another NI organism to kill others (they’re called soldiers or terrorists). But this is an NI issue, not an AI issue, so we would be well advised to continue our efforts toward a better scientific understanding of NI, which is where the real danger lies.


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

Non-intelligent organisms can program AI machines to harm or kill other non-intelligent organisms or program other non-intelligent organisms to kill others. This is an issue with non-intelligent organisms, not AI. Efforts should be focused on understanding non-intelligent organisms to address the real danger.




Michael Shermer is an accomplished author, historian, and science communicator. Born on September 8, 1954, in Glendale, California, Shermer developed a passion for science and skepticism at a young age. He earned his Bachelor of Arts in psychology from Pepperdine University and his Master of Science in experimental psychology from California State University, Fullerton.Shermer is the founder of the Skeptics Society, a non-profit organization dedicated to promoting critical thinking and scientific inquiry. He is also the editor-in-chief of Skeptic magazine, which explores controversial topics such as pseudoscience, alternative medicine, and conspiracy theories.As an author, Shermer has written numerous books, including “Why People Believe Weird Things,” “The Believing Brain,” and “Heavens on Earth.” He has also contributed to publications such as The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and Scientific American.In addition to his work in skepticism and science communication, Shermer is a historian of science and has written extensively on the history of evolutionary theory. He has also taught courses on the history of science at Occidental College and Claremont Graduate University.Shermer has received numerous awards for his work, including the American Humanist Association’s Isaac Asimov Science Award and the Balles Prize in Critical Thinking. He is a fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science and a member of the advisory board of the Secular Coalition for America.Overall, Michael Shermer is a prominent figure in the world of skepticism and science communication, known for his insightful writing, engaging lectures, and commitment to promoting critical thinking and scientific inquiry.






Source: https://www.edge.org/conversation/the-myth-of-ai