Max Tegmark on 2015

This AI Prediction was made by Max Tegmark in 2015.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

We don’t know what the probability is of machines reaching human-level ability on all cognitive tasks during our lifetime, but most of the AI researchers at the conference put the odds above 50%, so we would be foolish to dismiss the possibility as mere science fiction.



Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Max Tegmark:

Not provided


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

AI researchers at a conference believe that the probability of machines reaching human-level ability on all cognitive tasks during our lifetime is above 50%. The possibility should not be dismissed as science fiction. The exact probability is unknown.



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

The advent of machines that truly think will be the most important event in human history. Whether it will be the best or worst thing ever to happen to humankind depends on how we prepare for it, and the time to start preparing is now.


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

The arrival of machines that can think will be the most significant event in human history. The outcome of this event will depend on how we prepare for it, and the time to start preparing is now. It could be the best or worst thing to happen to humankind.




Max Tegmark is a renowned physicist, cosmologist, and AI researcher. Born in Sweden in 1967, Tegmark received his undergraduate degree in Physics from the Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm and his Ph.D. in Physics from the University of California, Berkeley. Tegmark is a professor of physics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and a member of the MIT Physics Department and the MIT Kavli Institute for Astrophysics and Space Research. He is also a co-founder of the Future of Life Institute, a non-profit organization that aims to mitigate existential risks facing humanity, particularly those posed by artificial intelligence.Tegmark’s research focuses on cosmology, the study of the universe as a whole, and the implications of artificial intelligence for humanity. He has published numerous papers on topics such as dark matter, cosmic microwave background radiation, and the multiverse hypothesis. In addition to his academic work, Tegmark is a popular science communicator and author. His book, “Our Mathematical Universe: My Quest for the Ultimate Nature of Reality,” was a New York Times bestseller and explores the idea that the universe is fundamentally mathematical in nature. Tegmark has received numerous awards and honors for his contributions to physics and cosmology, including the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation Fellowship, the Cottrell Scholar Award, and the James Arthur Prize from the New York Academy of Sciences. He is a Fellow of the American Physical Society and a member of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.









Keywords: machines, AI researchers, cognitive tasks