Max Tegmark on 2014

This AI Prediction was made by Max Tegmark in 2014.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)



Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Max Tegmark:

Not provided


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

In an interview with Vice, cosmologist Max Tegmark discusses the idea that reality is fundamentally mathematical. He argues that the universe can be described by mathematical equations and that the laws of physics are simply the rules of mathematics. Tegmark also suggests that the concept of free will may be an illusion, as everything in the universe is predetermined by mathematical laws.



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

I would guess there’s about a 60 percent chance that I’m not going to die of old age, but from some kind of human-caused calamity.


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

The author believes there is a 60% chance they will not die of old age. They predict their death will be caused by a human-caused calamity. No further details are provided.




Max Tegmark is a renowned physicist, cosmologist, and AI researcher. Born in Sweden in 1967, Tegmark received his undergraduate degree in Physics from the Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm and his Ph.D. in Physics from the University of California, Berkeley. Tegmark is a professor of physics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and a member of the MIT Physics Department and the MIT Kavli Institute for Astrophysics and Space Research. He is also a co-founder of the Future of Life Institute, a non-profit organization that aims to mitigate existential risks facing humanity, particularly those posed by artificial intelligence.Tegmark’s research focuses on cosmology, the study of the universe as a whole, and the implications of artificial intelligence for humanity. He has published numerous papers on topics such as dark matter, cosmic microwave background radiation, and the multiverse hypothesis. In addition to his academic work, Tegmark is a popular science communicator and author. His book, “Our Mathematical Universe: My Quest for the Ultimate Nature of Reality,” was a New York Times bestseller and explores the idea that the universe is fundamentally mathematical in nature. Tegmark has received numerous awards and honors for his contributions to physics and cosmology, including the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation Fellowship, the Cottrell Scholar Award, and the James Arthur Prize from the New York Academy of Sciences. He is a Fellow of the American Physical Society and a member of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.