Max More on 2002

This AI Prediction was made by Max More in 2002.

Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

So, I will only be pinned down to the extent of placing the posthuman Singularity as not earlier than 2020 and probably not later than 2100, with a best guess somewhere around the middle of the century.

Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Max More:

I do not expect an instantaneous Singularity, nor one in which humans play no part after the creation of a self-improving human-level AI. I do anticipate a Singularity in the form of a growing surge in the pace of change, leading to a transhuman transition.

Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

The Singularity is not expected to happen instantaneously, nor will humans be completely removed from the process. It will be a gradual surge in the pace of change, leading to a transhuman transition. This transition will be facilitated by the creation of a self-improving human-level AI.

The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

I do see a Singularity of the third kind in our future. […] I do not see it as inevitable. It will take vast amounts of hard work, intelligence, determination, and some wisdom and luck to achieve. It’s possible that some humans will destroy the race through means such as biological warfare. Or our culture may rebel against change, seduced by religious and cultural urgings for “stability”, “peace” and against “hubris” and “the unknown”.

Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

The Singularity of the third kind is not inevitable, and will require hard work and intelligence to achieve. However, it is possible that humans will destroy the race through biological warfare or by rebelling against change. It will take wisdom and luck to avoid these potential pitfalls.

About:

Max More is a British-born American philosopher and futurist. He is the founder and CEO of Alcor Life Extension Foundation, a cryonics organization, and the president of the Extropy Institute, an organization devoted to transhumanist thought. He is best known for his work on transhumanism, a philosophy which seeks to use technology to extend the human lifespan and enhance human capabilities.