This AI Prediction was made by Mark Pagel in 2015.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
Indeed, we should look forward to the day when machines can transcend mere problem solving, and become imaginative and innovative—still a long long way off but surely a feature of true intelligence—because this is something humans are not very good at, and yet we will probably need it more in the coming decades than at any time in our history.
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Mark Pagel:
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
The author believes that machines should be able to go beyond problem-solving and become imaginative and innovative, which is a feature of true intelligence. Humans are not very good at this, and it will be needed more in the coming decades than at any other time in history. However, this is still a long way off.
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
There is no reason to believe that as machines become more intelligent—and intelligence such as ours is still little more than a pipe-dream—they will become evil, manipulative, self-interested or in general, a threat to humans. Self-interest is a property of things that ‘want’ to stay alive (or more accurately, that want to reproduce), and this is not a natural property of machines—computers don’t mind, much less worry, about being switched off.
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
There is no evidence to suggest that as machines become more intelligent, they will become a threat to humans. Self-interest is not a natural property of machines, as they do not have a desire to stay alive or reproduce. Computers do not worry about being switched off.
Mark Pagel is a renowned evolutionary biologist and professor at the University of Reading in the United Kingdom. He has dedicated his career to studying the evolution of language, culture, and social behavior in humans and other animals.Pagel received his Ph.D. in biology from the University of Sussex and has since published numerous articles and books on evolutionary biology. He is particularly interested in the role of cultural evolution in shaping human societies and has conducted extensive research on the evolution of language and communication.In addition to his academic work, Pagel is a fellow of the Royal Society and a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He has also served as a consultant for various organizations, including the World Health Organization and the United Nations.Pagel is a passionate advocate for science education and has given numerous talks and lectures on the importance of understanding evolution and its impact on society. He is also a regular contributor to popular science publications, such as Scientific American and New Scientist.Overall, Mark Pagel is a highly respected figure in the field of evolutionary biology and a leading voice in the study of language and culture. His work has had a profound impact on our understanding of human evolution and the role of culture in shaping our societies.
Keywords: machines, problem solving, intelligence