This AI Prediction was made by Luke Muehlhauser in 2013.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
That is, I think it is unreasonable to be 70% confident that AI is fewer than 30 years away, and I also think it’s unreasonable to be 70% confident that AI is more than 100 years away.
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Luke Muehlhauser:
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
The article discusses the difficulty in predicting when artificial intelligence (AI) will be created. It highlights the fact that AI development is dependent on breakthroughs in various fields such as neuroscience, computer science, and robotics. The author concludes that while it is impossible to predict an exact timeline for AI creation, it is important to continue investing in research and development to ensure that AI is developed safely and ethically.
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
Luke Muehlhauser is a prominent figure in the field of artificial intelligence and effective altruism. He is a researcher, writer, and speaker who has dedicated his career to exploring the intersection of technology and ethics.Muehlhauser began his academic journey at the University of Washington, where he earned a Bachelor of Science in mathematics and philosophy. He went on to pursue a Master of Arts in philosophy at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where he focused on epistemology and philosophy of science.After completing his graduate studies, Muehlhauser worked as a research fellow at the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence (now known as the Machine Intelligence Research Institute). During his time there, he co-authored several influential papers on the risks and benefits of advanced artificial intelligence.In 2011, Muehlhauser co-founded the blog LessWrong, which quickly became a hub for discussions on rationality, cognitive science, and effective altruism. He also served as the executive director of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute from 2013 to 2015.Muehlhauser has written extensively on topics such as existential risk, artificial intelligence, and effective altruism. His work has been featured in publications such as The New York Times, The Guardian, and The Atlantic.Today, Muehlhauser continues to be a leading voice in the field of artificial intelligence and ethics. He is the executive director of the Open Philanthropy Project, a research and grantmaking organization that aims to identify the most effective ways to improve the world.
Keywords: AI, years, confident