This AI Prediction was made by Lee Smolin in 2014.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
Neuroscience is advancing quickly; so sometime in this century we may understand how the several aspects of human intelligence arise. But why couldn’t such progress require us to come to a detailed understanding of how natural intelligence differs qualitatively from any behavior that a present day computer could exhibit.
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Lee Smolin:
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
Advancements in neuroscience may lead to a better understanding of human intelligence in this century. However, it is possible that progress may require a detailed understanding of how natural intelligence differs from computer behavior. The article questions why such progress couldn’t be made.
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
Why aren’t we more worried by the implications of a major transition in the organization of life which is undoubtedly underway, due to unanticipated consequences of run away technology? This is the growth of technology to the point its waste products disrupt the natural feedback mechanisms that control the climate, i.e. climate change. This is the unavoidable first step in a process that must, if we are to survive as an industrial civilization, end in a synthesis of the natural and artificial control systems on the planet.
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
The growth of technology has led to the disruption of natural feedback mechanisms that control the climate, resulting in climate change. This is a major transition in the organization of life that is underway due to unanticipated consequences of technology. To survive as an industrial civilization, a synthesis of natural and artificial control systems on the planet is necessary.
Lee Smolin is a renowned theoretical physicist and author, known for his contributions to the fields of quantum gravity and cosmology. Born in New York City in 1955, Smolin received his undergraduate degree in physics from Hampshire College and his Ph.D. from Harvard University. Throughout his career, Smolin has held positions at numerous prestigious institutions, including the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, the Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics in Canada, and the University of Waterloo. He has also been a visiting professor at several universities around the world, including Oxford, Yale, and the University of California, Berkeley.Smolin is perhaps best known for his work on loop quantum gravity, a theory that seeks to reconcile the principles of general relativity with those of quantum mechanics. He has also made significant contributions to the study of black holes, the nature of time, and the evolution of the universe.In addition to his research, Smolin is a prolific author, having written several books on physics and philosophy. His most recent work, “Einstein’s Unfinished Revolution: The Search for What Lies Beyond the Quantum,” explores the implications of quantum mechanics for our understanding of the nature of reality.Throughout his career, Smolin has received numerous awards and honors, including the American Physical Society’s prestigious Sakurai Prize in 2008. He is a fellow of the American Physical Society and a member of the Royal Society of Canada.