This AI Prediction was made by Kevin Gold in 2007.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
I take it the spirit of your question is, how long until we get enough of these modular systems working together that the end result meets or beats human performance in every possible endeavor?Not in this century, I think.
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Kevin Gold:
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
Modular systems are being developed to match or exceed human performance in various tasks. It is unlikely that this will be achieved in the 21st century. However, progress is being made in this area and it is possible that it could be achieved in the future.
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
Kevin Gold is a researcher at the University of Sussex’s Centre for Computational Neuroscience and Robotics. His research interests include machine learning, robotics, and cognitive science. Gold has been involved in several research projects focused on developing models of biological and artificial cognition. He has also worked on developing algorithms for autonomous navigation and has been involved in several projects that explore the intersection of machine learning and robotics.
Keywords: modular systems, human performance, endeavors