Kentaro Toyama on 2016

This AI Prediction was made by Kentaro Toyama in 2016.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

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Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Kentaro Toyama:

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Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

Future artificial intelligence will be like atomic bombs compared with the toy guns we call digital technology today. Of great concern, however, is that while nuclear weapons are under the tight control of responsible governments accountable to their citizens, future AI is most likely to be developed by private corporations who see their moral imperative to be to increase shareholder value, and who ferociously resist attempts at regulation.


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

Future artificial intelligence will be much more powerful than current digital technology. The concern is that private corporations, who prioritize increasing shareholder value, will likely develop AI and resist regulation. Unlike nuclear weapons, AI will not be under the control of responsible governments.




Extended Bio of Kentaro ToyamaKentaro Toyama is a renowned computer scientist, author, and international development researcher. He was born in Tokyo, Japan, and grew up in the United States. He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from Harvard University, a Ph.D. in Computer Science from Yale University, and an MBA from the Stanford Graduate School of Business.Toyama’s research focuses on the intersection of technology and international development. He has worked in India, Ghana, and Kenya, where he has studied the impact of technology on education, healthcare, and economic development. He has also served as a consultant for various organizations, including Microsoft Research, UNESCO, and the World Bank.In addition to his research, Toyama is a prolific writer. He has authored numerous articles and papers on technology and development, and his work has been featured in publications such as The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Economist. He is also the author of the book “Geek Heresy: Rescuing Social Change from the Cult of Technology,” which explores the limitations of technology in solving social problems.Toyama is currently a professor at the University of Michigan’s School of Information, where he teaches courses on technology and development. He is also the co-founder of the nonprofit organization, The School in the Cloud, which aims to provide quality education to children in remote and underprivileged areas.Throughout his career, Toyama has received numerous awards and honors for his work, including the ACM SIGCHI Social Impact Award, the IEEE Computer Society’s Golden Core Award, and the Tech Museum of Innovation’s Global Humanitarian Award. He continues to be a leading voice in the field of technology and development, advocating for a more nuanced and thoughtful approach to using technology to address social problems.









Keywords: artificial intelligence, private corporations, regulation