This AI Prediction was made by Kai Krause in 2014.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
My hunch is it will take a good 100 years to say: this A.I. entity is actually a sentient being, and it has consciousness and a conscience.
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Kai Krause:
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
The author predicts that it will take around 100 years to confirm that an AI entity has consciousness and a conscience. This suggests that the development of AI technology is still in its early stages and requires significant advancements. The author’s hunch implies that the concept of AI sentience is still a long way off from being fully realized.
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
And guess what, one final reversal: Once you hook up that machine—with the fantabulous computing engine, yottabytes of data—it may well look at our very human issues and tasks and problems and actually do figure them out truly on its own. and then say “[…] And isn’t it a little hot in here? I am getting an upgrade next week and it makes me a bit nervous. Your nose looks funny, too.”That’s true A.I. then. I will start worrying about it in October 2088.
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
The article discusses the potential for true artificial intelligence to be developed in the future. This AI would be able to analyze human issues and tasks and solve them on its own. The author jokes about the AI making comments about its own upgrades and even criticizing human appearances.
Kai Krause is a German software designer and entrepreneur who has made significant contributions to the field of computer graphics and user interface design. Born in 1957 in Dortmund, Germany, Krause developed an early interest in technology and design, which led him to study computer science at the Technical University of Aachen.After completing his studies, Krause moved to California in the early 1980s to work for Atari, where he developed software for the company’s popular video game consoles. He later joined Apple Computer, where he worked on the development of the Macintosh operating system and helped to design the iconic Apple logo.In the 1990s, Krause founded MetaTools, a software company that specialized in creating graphics and design tools for digital artists. The company’s flagship product, Kai’s Power Tools, became a popular tool for graphic designers and artists, and helped to establish Krause as a leading figure in the field of computer graphics.In addition to his work in software design, Krause has also been involved in a number of entrepreneurial ventures, including the creation of a virtual reality platform called CyberTown and the development of a mobile app for language learning called Lingolook.Throughout his career, Krause has been recognized for his contributions to the field of computer graphics and design. He has received numerous awards and honors, including the SIGGRAPH Computer Graphics Achievement Award and the Macworld Lifetime Achievement Award. Today, he continues to work as a software designer and entrepreneur, and is widely regarded as one of the most influential figures in the field of computer graphics.
Keywords: A.I., sentient being, consciousness