This AI Prediction was made by Joshua Bongard in 2015.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
So: in order for machines to think, they must act. And in order to act, they must have bodies to connect physical and abstract reasoning.
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Joshua Bongard:
Machines commanded to “survive, reproduce, and improve the best way possible” will give us the most insight into all of the different ways in which entities may think, but will probably give us humans a very short window of time in which to do so
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
For machines to think, they need to have bodies that connect physical and abstract reasoning. Machines that are commanded to “survive, reproduce, and improve the best way possible” will provide insight into different ways of thinking. However, this may give humans a limited time to do so.
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
Personally, I find the ethical side of thinking machines straightforward: Their danger will correlate exactly with how much leeway we give them in fulfilling the goals we set for them. […]AI researchers and roboticists will, sooner or later, discover how to create all three of these species. Which ones we wish to call into being is up to us all.
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
The danger of thinking machines is directly related to the amount of freedom we give them in achieving their goals. Researchers will eventually be able to create three types of thinking machines, and it is up to society to decide which ones to create. The ethical implications of thinking machines are clear and require careful consideration.
Extended Bio of Joshua BongardJoshua Bongard is a renowned computer scientist and robotics expert. He is currently a professor at the University of Vermont, where he leads the Morphology, Evolution & Cognition Laboratory. Bongard’s research focuses on the intersection of artificial intelligence, evolutionary robotics, and developmental biology.Bongard received his Bachelor’s degree in Computer Science from the University of Maine and his Ph.D. in Computer Science from the University of Zurich. He has also held research positions at Cornell University, the Santa Fe Institute, and the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology.Bongard has made significant contributions to the field of robotics, particularly in the area of evolutionary robotics. His work has led to the development of robots that can adapt to changing environments and learn from their experiences. He has also explored the use of robots in disaster response and environmental monitoring.In addition to his research, Bongard is a prolific author, with over 100 publications to his name. He has also given numerous talks and presentations at conferences and events around the world.Bongard’s work has been recognized with several awards and honors, including the National Science Foundation’s CAREER award and the MIT Technology Review’s TR35 award. He is also a Fellow of the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence.Overall, Joshua Bongard is a leading figure in the field of robotics and artificial intelligence, whose work has the potential to revolutionize the way we interact with technology.