This AI Prediction was made by Joscha Bach in 2015.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
The new generation of AI systems is still far from being able to replicate the generality of human intelligence, and in my view, it is hard to guess how long that is going to take
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Joscha Bach:
I do not think that this is going to happen in an instant (in which case it only matters who has got the first one). Before we have generally intelligent, self-perfecting AI, we will see many variants of task specific, non-general AI, to which we can adapt.
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
The new generation of AI systems is not yet capable of replicating human intelligence. It is uncertain how long it will take for AI to achieve generality. Before achieving self-perfecting AI, there will be many task-specific variants of AI.
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
AI can make these destructive tendencies more efficient, and thus more disastrous, but it could equally well help us to solve the existential challenges of our civilisation. I think that building benevolent AI is closely connected to the task of building a society that supplies the right motivations to its building blocks.
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
AI can either worsen or solve the challenges faced by our civilization. Building benevolent AI is linked to building a society with the right motivations. The task of building a society with the right motivations is crucial in building benevolent AI.
Extended Bio of Joscha BachJoscha Bach is a renowned artificial intelligence researcher, cognitive scientist, and philosopher. He was born in Germany and grew up in the city of Kiel. From a young age, Bach was fascinated by the workings of the human mind and the mysteries of consciousness. This led him to pursue a career in cognitive science and artificial intelligence.Bach received his Ph.D. in cognitive science from the University of Osnabrück in Germany. His doctoral thesis focused on the computational modeling of cognitive processes, particularly in the domain of language processing. After completing his Ph.D., Bach worked as a postdoctoral researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in the United States. During his time at MIT, he worked on several projects related to artificial intelligence, including the development of cognitive architectures and the creation of intelligent agents.In 2012, Bach joined the Harvard Program for Evolutionary Dynamics as a research scientist. He continued to work on artificial intelligence and cognitive science, focusing on the intersection of these fields with philosophy. Bach’s research has been published in numerous academic journals and he has presented his work at conferences around the world.In addition to his academic work, Bach is also a popular speaker and commentator on topics related to artificial intelligence, cognitive science, and philosophy. He has given talks at TEDx events and has been interviewed by major media outlets such as the BBC, The New York Times, and Wired.Bach is currently the Vice President of Research at the AI Foundation, a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the field of artificial intelligence in a responsible and ethical manner. He is also a visiting scholar at the MIT Media Lab and a fellow at the Ethics and Governance of AI Initiative at the Harvard Kennedy School.Overall, Joscha Bach is a leading figure in the field of artificial intelligence and cognitive science. His work has contributed significantly to our understanding of the human mind and the potential of intelligent machines.