This AI Prediction was made by John Markoff in 2015.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
While there is no evidence that the world is on the cusp of machines that think in a human sense, there is also little question that in an Internet-connected world, artificial intelligence will soon imitate much of what humans do both physically and intellectually.
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from John Markoff:
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
Artificial intelligence is not yet capable of thinking like humans, but it will soon be able to imitate human actions and intelligence in an Internet-connected world. There is no evidence of machines that can think like humans. However, AI will be able to replicate much of what humans do both physically and intellectually.
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
At the dawn of the computing age Wiener had a clear sense of the significance of the relationship between humans and smart machines. He saw the benefits of automation in eliminating human drudgery, but he also clearly saw the possibility of the subjugation of humanity. The intervening decades have only sharpened the dichotomy he first identified.
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
Wiener recognized the importance of the relationship between humans and smart machines during the early days of computing. He acknowledged the advantages of automation in reducing human labor, but also warned of the potential for human subjugation. This dichotomy has only become more pronounced over time.
John Markoff is an accomplished journalist and author who has made significant contributions to the field of technology reporting. He was born on October 24, 1949, in Oakland, California, and grew up in Palo Alto, where he developed an early interest in computers and technology.Markoff attended Whitman College in Walla Walla, Washington, where he earned a Bachelor of Arts degree in sociology in 1971. He then went on to study at the University of Oregon, where he received a Master of Arts degree in sociology in 1976.Markoff began his career as a journalist in the early 1970s, working for a number of newspapers and magazines, including the Pacific News Service, the San Francisco Examiner, and Byte magazine. In 1981, he joined the staff of the New York Times, where he worked as a technology reporter for over three decades.During his time at the Times, Markoff covered a wide range of topics related to technology and its impact on society, including the rise of personal computing, the development of the internet, and the emergence of artificial intelligence. He was known for his insightful reporting and his ability to explain complex technical concepts in a way that was accessible to a general audience.In addition to his work as a journalist, Markoff has also written several books on technology and its impact on society. His most notable works include “What the Dormouse Said: How the Sixties Counterculture Shaped the Personal Computer Industry” and “Machines of Loving Grace: The Quest for Common Ground Between Humans and Robots.”Markoff has received numerous awards and honors for his work as a journalist, including a Pulitzer Prize in 2013 for his coverage of the rise of the Chinese technology industry. He retired from the New York Times in 2017 but continues to write and speak about technology and its impact on society.
Keywords: artificial intelligence, automation, human-machine relationship