Jed McCaleb on 2015

This AI Prediction was made by Jed McCaleb in 2015.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

Researchers largely agree that AI is likely to begin outperforming humans on most cognitive tasks in this century.Similarly, I believe we’ll see the promise of human-level AI come to fruition much sooner than we’ve fathomed.



Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Jed McCaleb:

Not provided


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

Jed McCaleb, co-founder of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI), explains why MIRI’s work is important. He argues that as artificial intelligence (AI) becomes more advanced, it will become increasingly difficult to control and ensure that it aligns with human values. MIRI’s research aims to develop AI that is safe and beneficial for humanity.



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

Its effects will likely be transformational — for the better if it is used to help improve the human condition, or for the worse if it is used incorrectly.


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

The impact of technology can be transformative, either positively or negatively depending on its use. If technology is utilized to enhance the human condition, it can have a positive impact. However, if it is used incorrectly, it can have a negative impact.




Jed McCaleb is a renowned American programmer and entrepreneur who has made significant contributions to the development of blockchain technology. Born in 1975, McCaleb grew up in Arkansas and attended the University of California, Berkeley, where he studied computer science.In the early 2000s, McCaleb gained recognition for creating eDonkey, one of the first peer-to-peer file-sharing networks. He later founded the cryptocurrency exchange Mt. Gox, which became one of the largest Bitcoin exchanges in the world before experiencing a major hack in 2014.After leaving Mt. Gox, McCaleb went on to co-found Stellar, a decentralized payment network that aims to provide affordable financial services to people around the world. As the CTO of Stellar, McCaleb has been instrumental in developing the platform’s technology and expanding its reach.In addition to his work in the blockchain industry, McCaleb is also a philanthropist who has donated millions of dollars to various charitable causes. He is a firm believer in the power of technology to create positive change in the world, and he continues to work tirelessly to advance the field of blockchain and cryptocurrency.









Keywords: AI, cognitive tasks, human-level AI