This AI Prediction was made by Jaron Lanier in 2014.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Jaron Lanier:
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
The article argues that the current state of artificial intelligence (AI) is not as advanced as many people believe. The author contends that AI is still limited in its ability to understand and interpret complex human emotions and experiences. The article suggests that the hype surrounding AI may be more of a myth than a reality.
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
The notion of this particular threshold—which is sometimes called the singularity, or super-intelligence, or all sorts of different terms in different periods—is similar to divinity. […] That particular idea has been dysfunctional in human history. It’s dysfunctional now, in distorting our relationship to our technology. It’s been dysfunctional in the past in exactly the same way. Only the words have changed.
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
The concept of a technological singularity or super-intelligence is similar to the idea of divinity and has been dysfunctional in human history. It distorts our relationship with technology and has been problematic in the past. The terminology may have changed, but the issue remains the same.
Jaron Lanier is a renowned computer scientist, philosopher, and author. Born in New York City in 1960, Lanier grew up in a family of musicians and artists, which greatly influenced his creative and interdisciplinary approach to technology. Lanier is best known for his pioneering work in virtual reality, having co-founded VPL Research in the 1980s, which developed some of the earliest VR systems. He has also made significant contributions to the fields of artificial intelligence, computer graphics, and music. In addition to his technical achievements, Lanier is a prolific writer and thinker. He has authored several books, including “You Are Not a Gadget,” “Who Owns the Future?,” and “Dawn of the New Everything: A Journey Through Virtual Reality.” His writing explores the social and ethical implications of technology, and he is a vocal advocate for the responsible use of digital tools. Lanier has received numerous awards and honors for his work, including the Electronic Frontier Foundation’s Pioneer Award and the World Technology Award for Ethics. He is also a visiting scholar at UC Berkeley’s College of Engineering and a founding member of the International Society for Virtual Rehabilitation. Overall, Jaron Lanier’s contributions to the fields of technology and philosophy have had a profound impact on our understanding of the relationship between humans and machines. His work continues to inspire new ideas and innovations in the digital age.
Keywords: threshold, singularity, super-intelligence