Jack Schwartz on 1987

This AI Prediction was made by Jack Schwartz in 1987.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:




Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Jack Schwartz:

If artificial intelligences can be created at all, there is little reason to believe that initial successes could not lead swiftly to the construction of artificial superintelligences


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

1. Artificial intelligence can be created, and initial successes could lead to the creation of superintelligences.2. Superintelligences would be much more powerful than current AI.3. The development of superintelligences could happen quickly.



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

Since man’s near-monopoly of all higher forms of intelligence has been one of the most basic facts of human existence throughout the past history of this planet, such developments would clearly create a new economics, a new sociology, and a new history


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

Humans have been the dominant species on Earth for a long time. If artificial intelligence were to become more advanced, it would have a huge impact on economics, sociology, and history. This would create a new world order, with AI playing a major role.




Jack Schwartz was an American computer scientist who is best known for his pioneering work in the field of artificial intelligence. He was a professor of computer science at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and was the founder and director of the Artificial Intelligence Laboratory at the university. He wrote over 100 papers and books on topics such as machine learning, natural language processing, and robotics. He was also a founding member of the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence.






Source: https://intelligence.org/files/IE-EI.pdf



Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, Economics, Sociology