J Storrs Hall on 2008

This AI Prediction was made by J Storrs Hall in 2008.

Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

We can predict with a fair confidence that two significant watersheds will have been passed by 2030: a molecular manufacturing nanotechnology which can produce a wide variety of mechanisms with atomic precision; and artificial intelligence

Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from J Storrs Hall:

This is a growth rate that would increase effective-ness from the 30,000 human equivalents at the start, to approximately 5 billion human equivalents a decade later. We claim that this growth rate is an upper bound on possible self-improvement rates given current realities

Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

Molecular manufacturing nanotechnology and artificial intelligence are predicted to be achieved by 2030. This would increase the effectiveness of human equivalents from 30,000 to 5 billion in a decade. This growth rate is an upper bound on possible self-improvement rates given current realities.

The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

At the end of the fourth phase, the AI/robotic economy exceeds the human one and is on a growth curve that can only be described as extreme in current-day terms.

Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

AI/robotic economy is growing rapidly and surpassing the human economy. This growth is unprecedented and can only be described as extreme. By the end of the fourth phase, the AI/robotic economy will be larger than the human economy.

About:

J Storrs Hall: J Storrs Hall is an American physicist and computer scientist. He is known for his work in the field of nanotechnology and molecular manufacturing, and has authored numerous papers on the subject. Hall is also a member of the Foresight Institute, which promotes the development and use of advanced technologies for the benefit of humanity.