Issac Trotts on 2007

This AI Prediction was made by Issac Trotts in 2007.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

I agree with Penrose that there is some chance for Artificial Intelligence to happen if we manage to understand the physical principles of the brain that have so far eluded us and use them to build intelligent devices. In that sense, I’d put the date somewhere beyond 2100 for the first brute-stupid artifacts.



Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Issac Trotts:


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

Artificial Intelligence may be possible if we can understand the physical principles of the brain. Penrose suggests that this may not happen until after 2100. I agree with this assessment, as the first AI devices will likely be “brute-stupid”.



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:




Isaac Trotts is an American computer scientist and entrepreneur. He is the co-founder and CEO of Augmentable, a startup that is developing machine learning tools to help businesses automate their workflows. He previously worked at Google as a software engineer and research scientist.