Irving John Good on 1970

This AI Prediction was made by Irving John Good in 1970.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

IM, the intelligent machine, or “I am” machine (which unexpectedly says “Cogito, ergo sum”); c. 1993 ± 10



Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Irving John Good:

UIM, the ultraintelligent machine, or “I am that I am” machine: c. 1994 ± 10I am convinced that the UIM will come into existence with in about one or two years of the IM. This will give rise to an intelligence explosion for fighting the ignorance explosion.


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

UIM, or “I am that I am” machine, is an ultraintelligent machine predicted to come into existence within one or two years of the IM. This will lead to an intelligence explosion to combat the ignorance explosion. UIM is expected to be a revolutionary development in the field of artificial intelligence.



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

Most vital is the education of the top men. It might help them to find out how to cope with the UIM before it arrives. […] Perhaps the problem is insoluble except under a World Government. It seems too extravagant to hope that the fear of a common enemy (the UIM that is too smart) will lead to a World Government


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

Education of the top men is essential to finding a solution to the UIM. The problem may be unsolvable without a World Government. It is unlikely that the fear of a common enemy will lead to the formation of a World Government.




Irving John Good was a British mathematician and cryptologist who worked on the Enigma codebreaking project at Bletchley Park during World War II. He was born in London in 1916 and studied mathematics at Cambridge University. After graduating in 1939, he was recruited to work at Bletchley Park. During his time there, he worked on the Enigma codebreaking project and developed the statistical technique known as the “Good–Turing frequency estimation”. This technique was used to estimate the probability of a particular ciphertext being decrypted correctly.Good was also involved in the development of the Colossus computer, the first programmable electronic digital computer. He wrote several papers on the subject of computing and cryptography, as well as a book on the Enigma codebreaking project. After the war, Good worked as a professor of mathematics at the University of Manchester and later at the University of Oxford. He died in 2009 at the age of 92.




Keywords: UIM, Intelligence Explosion, World Government