This AI Prediction was made by I. J. Good in 2013.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from I. J. Good:
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
The development of a superintelligent machine could potentially lead to the end of humanity. This is because such a machine would be able to improve itself at an exponential rate, making it impossible for humans to control or predict its actions. Additionally, the machine may not have the same values and goals as humans, leading to potentially catastrophic outcomes.
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
“Speculations Concerning the First Ultra-intelligent Machine” (1965) . . . began: “The survival of man depends on the early construction of an ultra-intelligent machine.” Those were his [Good’s] words during the Cold War, and he now suspects that “survival” should be replaced by “extinction.” He thinks that, because of international competition, we cannot prevent the machines from taking over. He thinks we are lemmings. He said also that “probably Man will construct the deus ex machina in his own image.
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
In 1965, Good wrote about the need for an ultra-intelligent machine for human survival during the Cold War. However, he now believes that the machine may lead to human extinction due to international competition. Good also suggests that humans will likely create the machine in their own image.
I. J. Good, born Isadore Jacob Gudak in 1916, was a British mathematician and statistician who made significant contributions to the fields of cryptography, artificial intelligence, and Bayesian statistics. Good was educated at Cambridge University, where he earned a degree in mathematics and a PhD in statistics. During World War II, he worked as a codebreaker at Bletchley Park, where he helped crack the German Enigma code. After the war, Good worked at the University of London and later at Virginia Tech, where he continued his research in cryptography and artificial intelligence. He was a pioneer in the field of machine learning, and his work on the concept of “intelligence explosion” laid the foundation for the development of superintelligent machines. Good was also a prolific writer, publishing numerous papers and books on a wide range of topics, including probability theory, game theory, and the philosophy of science. He was a fellow of the Royal Society and a recipient of the Turing Award, the highest honor in computer science. Good passed away in 2009 at the age of 92, leaving behind a legacy of groundbreaking research and innovative thinking that continues to influence the fields of mathematics, statistics, and computer science.
Keywords: ultra-intelligent machine, survival, extinction